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ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 28.02.2024 09.36 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 28 0907 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 432 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 27.02.2024 06.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 27 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 27.02.2024 03.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4550
Valid From: 2024 Feb 27 0113 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 27 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 27.02.2024 03.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 27 0350 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 27 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 27.02.2024 03.05 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 27 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 27.02.2024 01.13 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 27 0113 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 27 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 25.02.2024 14.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4548
Valid From: 2024 Feb 25 0545 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 26 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 25.02.2024 05.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 25 0545 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 22.02.2024 23.41 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 2224 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 22 2225 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 22 2235 UTC
Duration: 11 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 173 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 22.02.2024 22.53 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 2208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 22 2234 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 22 2243 UTC
X-ray Class: X6.3
Optical Class: 3b
Location: N22E24
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 22.02.2024 22.30 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 22 2225 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 22.02.2024 19.17 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 23: None (Below G1) Feb 24: None (Below G1) Feb 25: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 22.02.2024 12.26 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 1158 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 22.02.2024 10.08 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 0944 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 154 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 22.02.2024 06.47 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 0617 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 22 0632 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 22 0640 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.7
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N14E35
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 22.02.2024 06.31 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 22 0629 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 21.02.2024 23.21 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 21 2252 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 21 2307 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 21 2314 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Location: N14E39
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 21.02.2024 23.06 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 21 2304 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 21.02.2024 04.13 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 21 0201 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 627 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 17.02.2024 18.12 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 17 1329 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 816 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 17.30 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 546
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 16 0807 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet warning criteria.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 17.30 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 98
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 16 0807 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet warning criteria.

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 08.07 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 16 0806 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 08.07 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 16 0806 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.18 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0653 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.17 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0651 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 16 0651 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 16 0656 UTC
Duration: 5 minutes
Peak Flux: 420 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 178 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.10 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0642 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 16 0653 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 16 0658 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.5
Optical Class: na
Location: S16W85
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.05 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0653 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2674 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 16.02.2024 06.55 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 16 0651 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 15.02.2024 23.35 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0805 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 13 0615 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 14 2000 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 118 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 15.02.2024 23.33 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 544
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 12 0813 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet warning criteria.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 15.02.2024 14.01 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 15 0910 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1959 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 15.02.2024 11.47 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 543
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 15 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment: 10 MeV protons have been between 6-8 pfu. Potential still exists to rise above 10 pfu threshold due to recent activity on the far side of the disk

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 15.02.2024 03.12 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 15 0236 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 433 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 15.02.2024 03.11 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 15 0230 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 376 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 14.02.2024 19.10 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 542
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 15 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 14.02.2024 05.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 14 0542 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 14 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 14.02.2024 04.35 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 14 0400 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 14.02.2024 04.35 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 14 0355 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 343 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 13.02.2024 21.53 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 13 0545 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 13 0615 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 13 0640 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 118 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 13.02.2024 17.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 541
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 14 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 13.02.2024 17.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 13 1740 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 13.02.2024 16.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 13 1641 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 14 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 13.02.2024 06.03 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 13 0545 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 21.11 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 96
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 1050 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 21.10 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 540
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 13 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

CANCEL ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 15.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Cancel Serial Number: 67
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 12 1040 UTC

Comment: Issued in mistake. 10MeV protons have not yet reached the S2 (100pfu) threshold. Current max is 76.2 pfu at 12/1450 UTC.

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 11.01 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 1050 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 10.40 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 1020 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 08.27 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1530 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 2355 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 11 1805 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 187 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 08.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0805 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 08.13 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 12.02.2024 07.27 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0635 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 12.02.2024 04.10 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0323 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 12 0348 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 12 0353 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.3
Location: S15W26
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 12.02.2024 03.47 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 12 0346 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 11.40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4544
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0217 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 12 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 11.02.2024 08.48 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 2310 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 2355 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 11 0355 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 187 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Publié: 11.02.2024 07.46 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 12: G1 (Minor) Feb 13: G2 (Moderate) Feb 14: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 05.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 538
Valid From: 2024 Feb 09 1520 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 12 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.51 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2256 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 2307 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 2314 UTC
X-ray Class: M9.0
Optical Class: 1f
Location: S15W09
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.29 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Feb 11 0211 UTC
Deviation: 40 nT
Station: Boulder

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0220 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 11 0220 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.19 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 11 0210 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0217 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 01.37 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0155 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 11 0255 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Feb 11 0123 UTC

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.59 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2305 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.23 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2303 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 2304 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 2308 UTC
Duration: 5 minutes
Peak Flux: 360 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 194 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.22 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2256 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2170 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.07 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 10 2304 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 10.02.2024 22.24 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 11: None (Below G1) Feb 12: G1 (Minor) Feb 13: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 10.02.2024 05.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 537
Valid From: 2024 Feb 09 1520 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 10.02.2024 05.05 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 0359 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 0401 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 0404 UTC
Duration: 5 minutes
Peak Flux: 250 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 183 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 10.02.2024 04.09 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 0335 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 0342 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 0354 UTC
Duration: 19 minutes
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 183 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 09.02.2024 18.38 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1815 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 09.02.2024 15.45 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1530 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 09.02.2024 15.14 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 09 1520 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 10 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.50 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1258 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 1306 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 09 1325 UTC
Duration: 27 minutes
Peak Flux: 1000 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 185 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.45 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1253 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 1314 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 09 1332 UTC
X-ray Class: X3..3
Location: S37W97
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.23 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1307 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.07 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 09 1303 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 08.02.2024 12.13 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 08 1149 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 363 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 07.02.2024 04.46 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 07 0304 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 07 0331 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 07 0411 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Optical Class: sf
Location: S40W78
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 07.02.2024 04.13 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 07 0314 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 07 0347 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 07 0356 UTC
Duration: 42 minutes
Peak Flux: 390 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 190 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 07.02.2024 03.32 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 07 0329 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 06.02.2024 03.53 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 06 0314 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 06.02.2024 03.49 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 06 0310 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 431 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 06.02.2024 02.56 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 06 0213 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 06 0219 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 06 0233 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 470 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 173 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 04.02.2024 22.48 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 04 2101 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 434 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 03.02.2024 00.09 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 04: None (Below G1) Feb 05: G1 (Minor) Feb 06: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 02.02.2024 12.06 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 02 1107 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 874 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Le nombre des taches solaires Tache de la zone 10E-6 De nouvelles régions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux éclairs
X-ray Optique
C M X S 1 2 3
02-02-2024 143 131 490 1 * 7 1 0 0 1 0 0
03-02-2024 156 123 770 1 * 15 0 0 6 0 0 0
04-02-2024 170 138 1320 0 * 12 7 0 8 0 0 0
05-02-2024 173 152 1065 2 * 11 2 0 9 2 0 0
06-02-2024 190 175 1020 0 * 5 3 0 11 1 0 0
07-02-2024 188 164 1210 1 * 6 2 0 3 2 0 0
08-02-2024 185 149 940 2 * 10 5 0 13 2 1 0
09-02-2024 183 105 910 0 * 8 2 1 7 1 0 0
10-02-2024 194 146 1030 3 * 12 3 0 5 1 0 0
11-02-2024 180 144 1090 0 * 7 1 0 5 0 0 0
12-02-2024 208 153 910 0 * 8 4 0 7 1 1 0
13-02-2024 195 122 1250 1 * 6 0 0 2 0 0 0
14-02-2024 184 123 1240 1 * 18 2 0 13 0 0 0
15-02-2024 178 151 1150 3 * 19 1 0 5 0 0 0
16-02-2024 169 97 600 0 * 6 2 1 2 1 0 0
17-02-2024 170 100 520 0 * 6 0 0 3 0 0 0
18-02-2024 157 84 690 1 * 8 0 0 1 0 0 0
19-02-2024 152 64 880 0 * 9 0 0 1 0 0 0
20-02-2024 153 50 870 0 * 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
21-02-2024 170 45 810 0 * 15 1 1 7 0 0 0
22-02-2024 173 46 980 0 * 6 1 2 8 0 2 0
23-02-2024 173 116 1410 4 * 6 4 0 1 2 0 0
24-02-2024 179 106 1710 0 * 11 4 0 0 0 0 0
25-02-2024 181 114 1910 1 * 3 1 0 4 1 0 0
26-02-2024 172 133 1420 1 * 3 0 0 2 0 0 0
27-02-2024 168 103 1130 0 * 4 0 0 6 0 0 0
28-02-2024 180 127 1340 1 * 8 1 0 4 0 0 0
29-02-2024 164 107 1560 1 * 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
01-03-2024 153 120 1300 1 * 9 0 0 8 0 0 0
02-03-2024 152 91 700 1 * 5 0 0 2 0 0 0
Moyenne/Total 173 116 1074 26 250 47 5 144 15 4 0

Graphique de synthèse

éclairs

Solar wind

Solar Wind

Le vent solaire est un flux de plasma libéré de la haute atmosphère du Soleil. Il se compose principalement d'électrons, de protons et de particules alpha avec des énergies généralement comprises entre 1,5 et 10 keV. Le flux de particules varie en densité, température et vitesse dans le temps et sur la longitude solaire. Ces particules peuvent échapper à la gravité du Soleil en raison de leur haute énergie, de la température élevée de la couronne et des phénomènes magnétiques, électriques et électromagnétiques qu'elle contient.

Le vent solaire est divisé en deux composantes, respectivement appelées le vent solaire lent et le vent solaire rapide. Le vent solaire lent a une vitesse d'environ 400 km / s, une température de 1,4–1,6 × 10e6 K et une composition proche de la couronne. En revanche, le vent solaire rapide a une vitesse typique de 750 km / s, une température de 8 × 10e5 K et il correspond presque à la composition de la photosphère du Soleil. Le vent solaire lent est deux fois plus dense et plus variable en intensité que le vent solaire rapide. Le vent lent a également une structure plus complexe, avec des régions turbulentes et des structures à grande échelle.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Le flux radioélectrique solaire à 10,7 cm (2800 MHz) est un excellent indicateur de l'activité solaire. Souvent appelé indice F10.7, c'est l'un des enregistrements les plus anciens d'activité solaire. Les émissions radio F10.7 proviennent de haut dans la chromosphère et bas dans la couronne de l'atmosphère solaire. Le F10.7 est bien corrélé avec le nombre de taches solaires ainsi qu'avec un certain nombre d'enregistrements d'irradiance solaire UltraViolet (UV) et visible. Rapporté en «unités de flux solaire» (s.f.u.), le F10.7 peut varier de moins de 50 s.f.u., à plus de 300 s.f.u., au cours d'un cycle solaire.

Flares

Flares

Une éruption solaire est un éclair soudain de luminosité observé à la surface du Soleil ou sur le flanc solaire, qui est interprété comme une importante libération d'énergie allant jusqu'à 6 × 10e25 joules d'énergie. Ils sont souvent, mais pas toujours, suivis d'une éjection de masse coronale colossale. La fusée éjecte des nuages ​​d'électrons, d'ions et d'atomes à travers la couronne du soleil dans l'espace. Ces nuages ​​atteignent généralement la Terre un jour ou deux après l'événement.

Les éruptions solaires affectent toutes les couches de l'atmosphère solaire (photosphère, chromosphère et couronne), lorsque le milieu plasma est chauffé à des dizaines de millions de kelvin, tandis que les électrons, les protons et les ions plus lourds sont accélérés à près de la vitesse de la lumière. Ils produisent un rayonnement à travers le spectre électromagnétique à toutes les longueurs d'onde, des ondes radio aux rayons gamma, bien que la plupart de l'énergie soit répartie sur des fréquences en dehors de la plage visuelle et pour cette raison, la majorité des fusées éclairantes ne sont pas visibles à l'œil nu et doivent être observé avec des instruments spéciaux. Les éruptions se produisent dans les régions actives autour des taches solaires, où des champs magnétiques intenses pénètrent dans la photosphère pour relier la couronne à l'intérieur solaire. Les fusées éclairantes sont alimentées par la libération soudaine (de quelques minutes à des dizaines de minutes) d'énergie magnétique stockée dans la couronne. Les mêmes rejets d'énergie peuvent produire des éjections de masse coronale (CME), bien que la relation entre les CME et les éruptions ne soit pas encore bien établie.

La fréquence d'apparition des éruptions solaires varie, de plusieurs par jour lorsque le Soleil est particulièrement «actif» à moins d'une par semaine lorsque le Soleil est «calme», suivant le cycle de 11 ans (le cycle solaire). Les grosses fusées éclairantes sont moins fréquentes que les plus petites.

Classification

Les éruptions solaires sont classées comme A, B, C, M ou X selon le flux de pointe (en watts par mètre carré, W / m2) de rayons X de 100 à 800 picomètres près de la Terre, tel que mesuré sur le vaisseau spatial GOES.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Les taches solaires sont des phénomènes temporaires sur la photosphère du Soleil qui apparaissent visiblement comme des taches sombres par rapport aux régions environnantes. Ils correspondent à des concentrations de champ magnétique qui inhibent la convection et entraînent une température de surface réduite par rapport à la photosphère environnante. Les taches solaires apparaissent généralement par paires, avec des membres de paires de polarité magnétique opposée. Le nombre de taches solaires varie en fonction du cycle solaire d'environ 11 ans.

Les populations de taches solaires augmentent rapidement et diminuent plus lentement selon un cycle irrégulier de 11 ans, bien que des variations significatives du nombre de taches solaires observant la période de 11 ans soient connues sur des périodes plus longues. Par exemple, de 1900 aux années 1960, la tendance des maxima solaires du nombre de taches solaires a été à la hausse; des années 1960 à nos jours, il a quelque peu diminué. Au cours des dernières décennies, le Soleil a eu un niveau moyen d'activité des taches solaires nettement élevé; il était également actif pour la dernière fois il y a plus de 8 000 ans.

Le nombre de taches solaires est en corrélation avec l'intensité du rayonnement solaire au cours de la période depuis 1979, lorsque les mesures par satellite du flux radiatif absolu sont devenues disponibles. Étant donné que les taches solaires sont plus sombres que la photosphère environnante, on peut s'attendre à ce que plus de taches solaires conduisent à moins de rayonnement solaire et à une constante solaire diminuée. Cependant, les marges environnantes des taches solaires sont plus lumineuses que la moyenne et sont donc plus chaudes; Dans l'ensemble, plus de taches solaires augmentent la constante solaire ou la luminosité du Soleil. La variation causée par le cycle des taches solaires à la production solaire est relativement faible, de l'ordre de 0,1% de la constante solaire (une plage pic à creux de 1,3 W / m2 contre 1366 W / m2 pour la constante solaire moyenne).

K-indices



Aujourd’hui


0h
UTC
3h
UTC
6h
UTC
9h
UTC
12h
UTC
15h
UTC
18h
UTC
21h
UTC
2. 67 - 1. 00 - 1.



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
03-02-2024 3 0. 33 1. 33 1.
04-02-2024 6 0. 67 1. 33 1.
05-02-2024 7 0. 67 0. 67 2.
06-02-2024 8 3. 00 2. 33 1.
07-02-2024 4 0. 33 0. 67 1.
08-02-2024 5 1. 00 1. 00 1.
09-02-2024 6 1. 00 0. 33 1.
10-02-2024 5 1. 00 1. 33 1.
11-02-2024 15 4. 33 3. 33 3.
12-02-2024 4 1. 67 1. 33 2.
13-02-2024 10 1. 67 2. 33 1.
14-02-2024 7 3. 33 3. 00 1.
15-02-2024 4 1. 33 0. 67 1.
16-02-2024 4 1. 33 0. 67 0.
17-02-2024 4 1. 00 0. 67 0.
18-02-2024 6 3. 33 2. 00 1.
19-02-2024 3 1. 67 0. 33 0.
20-02-2024 6 1. 00 0. 33 2.
21-02-2024 4 1. 00 0. 33 0.
22-02-2024 6 2. 00 2. 33 2.
23-02-2024 3 0. 33 0. 33 0.
24-02-2024 7 1. 00 0. 67 0.
25-02-2024 13 1. 67 3. 00 3.
26-02-2024 11 3. 33 3. 00 2.
27-02-2024 13 3. 67 4. 67 3.
28-02-2024 6 1. 67 1. 33 1.
29-02-2024 4 1. 00 0. 33 1.
01-03-2024 9 3. 00 3. 00 3.
02-03-2024 5 2. 33 1. 67 1.
03-03-2024 5 2. 67 - 1. 00 - 1.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
03-02-2024 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
04-02-2024 5 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
05-02-2024 6 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
06-02-2024 8 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1
07-02-2024 3 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1
08-02-2024 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1
09-02-2024 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 3
10-02-2024 4 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1
11-02-2024 12 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2
12-02-2024 4 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1
13-02-2024 8 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 2
14-02-2024 6 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 2
15-02-2024 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 1
16-02-2024 3 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 1
17-02-2024 4 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 2
18-02-2024 4 3 1 0 2 1 0 1 0
19-02-2024 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
20-02-2024 5 1 0 2 2 2 1 2 2
21-02-2024 3 0 1 1 1 2 1 1
22-02-2024 6 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
23-02-2024 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1
24-02-2024 6 1 0 0 1 3 2 2 3
25-02-2024 14 2 3 3 2 4 2 3 3
26-02-2024 10 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 2
27-02-2024 9 3 4 3 1 1 1 2 0
28-02-2024 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1
29-02-2024 4 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 1
01-03-2024 9 3 3 3 1 2 2 1 1
02-03-2024 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 0
03-03-2024 3

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
03-02-2024 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
04-02-2024 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2
05-02-2024 4 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 1
06-02-2024 6 1 1 0 4 2 1 1 0
07-02-2024 3 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0
08-02-2024 5 0 0 1 3 3 2 1 0
09-02-2024 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1
10-02-2024 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0
11-02-2024 15 2 3 4 5 2 2 1 1
12-02-2024 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
13-02-2024 17 1 1 0 4 5 5 2 1
14-02-2024 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 0
15-02-2024 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
16-02-2024 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
17-02-2024 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 1
18-02-2024 6 2 1 1 4 2 0 0 0
19-02-2024 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
20-02-2024 12 0 0 3 4 4 4 0 1
21-02-2024 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0
22-02-2024 3 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 0
23-02-2024 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
24-02-2024 5 0 0 0 2 4 1 1 1
25-02-2024 19 1 4 4 5 4 2 2 2
26-02-2024 13 2 1 3 4 5 1 1 0
27-02-2024 9 3 4 3 0 2 1 2 0
28-02-2024 7 0 0 1 5 1 0 1 0
29-02-2024 4 0 0 2 1 3 2 0 0
01-03-2024 11 1 2 4 4 2 2 2 0
02-03-2024 3 1 1 2 1 2 0 1 0
03-03-2024 0

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Source de données: NOAA, Wikipedia

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